The Death of the Aspirational Buyer

The Death (or Disappearance)
of the

Aspirational Buyer

Once again she didn't show up at Nieman, Saks, or Nordstroms; you remember her quite fondly, but you won't be seeing much of her for a while, maybe for much of the next decade.  She was a college-educated, middle-class woman with the need to convince herself that she was entitled to some luxury in her life. She'd take care of the family at the mid-priced stores like Macy's or even Penney's; then she'd go to the "ritzier" end of the mall, have a latte, and shop for herself at the shoe department of Nordstrom's (oh, do they sell shoes!) or wander through Saks looking for the one item that would make her day, make her feel special.

Our friend just found out that when her Lexus 350 lease is over next month, the best she can afford to replace it with is a Toyota Corolla, given her deteriorating credit score. Her administrative job is still there at the office park, but she knows that they've stopped hiring and some departments are cutting staff. She's just had "the talk" with her daughter about the difference in costs between SUNY Albany (or Penn State) and Boston U. and made it clear that she can't sign for an additional $200k for private college over a state school. Her 401(k) is in shreds, as most of it was in her own employer's stock. Her husband's commissions are down 35 percent from two years ago when they refinanced the house to add the granite-clad kitchen with the "professional" six-burner oven (very useful for reheating Chinese take-out). The easy-to-afford mortgage on their house is being reset next month, and while her payments aren't going up much, she knows quite well that it's now greater than her neighbor got for the same house next door. And, to top it off, her parents stopped those annual gifts of 10 or 20 thousand dollars because the only estate problems they're left with is staying in their home.

So don't expect to see her at Saks for a while, or at Nieman, or at the shoe dep't of Nordstroms. She's either "shopping in her closet" or running into Kohl's in the next town (so no one will see her). And, to her great surprise, her 12 year old son doesn't mind getting his school clothes at Target.

limitations of electric-only autos.doc

Limitations of the Electric-only personal or family car

The idea that an all-electric car, dependent solely on recharging its batteries and unable to rely on the infrastructure of filling stations to provide power on longer trips, will be more than a sideshow may well be the business folly of this century.

Worldwide, the driving public has come to rely on the auto as a versatile tool of mobility - fulfilling the daily commuting and errand-running tasks while at the same time available for overnight or long-distance trips. While many drivers have the luxury of secured parking adjacent to their own electric supply, many others don't. Urban drivers who park on the streets, suburban occupants of garden apartment complexes, people who park in attended or unattended garages, students on campuses, etc. all leave their cars overnight at a distance from their own homes. Others, traveling salesmen, routemen, etc. spend nights in different motels, with or without secure parking. Still others, mainly recreational users, take their cars to locations which are intrinsically lacking in recharging facilities - a mountain stream, the beach, remote desert locations, etc.

Many drivers routinely use their cars for long drives where they only want to stop for the 5 minutes it takes to refuel, their auto, drain their kidneys, and get a fresh coffee (with or without the greaseburger). Whatever car they use for the daily commute, they expect it to be versatile enough to accommodate them on these longer trips - for business, family, recreation, or sheer wanderlust. Many of these trips are not optional from a personal or family standpoint - the weekly trip to help a sick relative, the out-of-town temporary job assignment coupled with maintaining family integrity, moving-in-or-out kids' at college dorms, etc. which can only be accomplished with a private auto within the allocated time.

None of these people can expect to be accommodated by an electric-only vehicle; they need the flexibility to make their own schedules, to come and go when necessary, and to "drive through the night" and return to work the next day. To  assume that buyers will look to preclude use of a vehicle for any of the above situations (or the myriad of similar ones that haven't been mentioned)  and to assume that they will continue to use the vehicle for its entire service life without need to rely on gas stations leaves a pretty narrow audience.

The intrinsic value of the general purpose auto has always been its versatility. The horror of the electric-only car is its complete and total abdication of status as a multipurpose tool for living, and the loss of personal freedom that has been the linchpin of the mass appeal of private autos since the 1927 introduction of the Ford Model A.